📊 Weekly Trading Outlook: Key Levels, Market Structure & Key News (02/18/2025)

Mastering Patience & Market Timing: Key Levels, Trade Setups, and the FOMC Inflection Point

👋 Hey traders,

Last week, I mentioned that $MES had found fair value, meaning buyers and sellers were in agreement on price. I also said that I saw a higher probability of success in long positions rather than shorts.

Though it wasn’t easy, $MES eventually pushed higher toward R3 ($6,150)—our first key resistance level.

I also mentioned staying mostly in cash due to major economic news events ahead. As a result, I took only one trade last week resulting in a win (technically two, but I had some trouble with timing).

📌 I posted a review of that trade here:
🔗 Trade Review Post

Tradezella Dashboard (Trade Journal)

📌 Why Price Action Felt “Anti-Climactic” Last Week

Honestly, I expected more volatility and stronger price action given the economic catalysts last week. But in hindsight, it makes sense why we didn’t see wild moves.

👉 $MES has been trading at fair value for weeks.

We’ve been oscillating between R1 and S1 (Mid CPR), which historically leads to low volatility.

Camarilla Pivot Insight:

• Explosive moves around economic events & FOMC meetings only happen when price is sitting at S3, R3, S4, or R4.

• When price is at Mid CPR (value range), markets tend to absorb liquidity instead of making wild moves.

📌 Current Market Context:
✅ 3-month trading range still intact
✅ $MES trading near R3 & All-Time Highs (ATH)
✅ Finding value at higher levels, but needs volume to break out
✅ Expect more selling pressure at resistance

📢 "The market is never wrong, but opinions often are." — Jesse Livermore

$MES DAILY CHART: Price was at value and is now trading at R3 (premium prices).

📌 My Approach to the Current Market

I’m having to be very patient in this market.

Patience used to be one of my biggest struggles as a trader, but lately, I’ve had no issues with waiting.

After 5 years of trading, I don’t think I know that much more about market mechanics than I did before. Instead, my improvement has come from simply doing what I need to do.

🔹 That means not forcing trades when the market isn’t presenting them.
🔹 That means not wasting my mental capital on low-quality setups.
🔹 That means being there when the best opportunities finally come.

"The best traders have no ego. You have to swallow your pride and get out of the losses." — Tom Hougaard

When I used to take random, forced trades, I’d often miss the actual big moves because I’d already taken bad losses. By the time real opportunities appeared, I wasn’t in the right mental space to execute.

Trading is not a linear game.

You really do get paid to wait and do nothing—until the market finally gives you an edge.

📢 "The whole secret to winning in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you're wrong." — William O’Neil

📌 Market Overview: Trend & Price Structure ($MES)

📊 3-Month Range on $MES:

• Support: $5,800

• Resistance: $6,150 (ATH & R3)

📊 Key Price Action Levels:

🔹 Support at $5,800 has been tested 3 times.
🔹 Breakout attempt at $6,150 resistance is ongoing.
🔹 Volume has been increasing at major support levels, indicating accumulation.
🔹 Compression box (range-bound action) is showing signs of a potential breakout.

💡 Market Makers’ Intent? Push price to new highs.
💭 Uncertainty? Timing.

📢 "The market is like the ocean. It moves in waves, and the intelligent trader learns to ride those waves rather than fight them." — Wyckoff

$MES DAILY CHART: Showing support, resistance, compression, and elevated volume.

📌 Key Levels & Trade Setups

🔹 Short-Term Resistance (Short Setups)

📍 $6,164.50 (Monthly R3) → Key level aligned with ATH.
📍 Market is accepting higher values, meaning traders aren’t afraid to buy at these prices.
📍 I’ll look for shorts, but probability is lower since sellers remain weak.

🔹 Breakout Play (Short Setup at R4)

📍 If $MES breaks $6,150 resistance, I’ll target $6,250 (R4) for shorts.
📍 If we break out of the 3-month range, expect a retest of breakout level before continuation.

🔹 Long Setups (Stronger Probabilities)

✅ If $6,150 (R3) resistance fails, I’ll initiate longs at:

• S3 ($5,950)

• S4 ($5,850)
  ✅ Higher conviction on longs since buyers have consistently stepped in at these levels.

📢 "An investor without a trading plan is like a ship without a rudder." — Charles Dow

📌 Macro Events & Market Sentiment

🚨 Key High-Impact Event This Week:
📅 Feb 19 – FOMC Minutes

🔥 Why This Matters?
We’re at a key inflection point:

• Monthly R3 + ATH + 3-Month Resistance

• 🔴 Could sell off hard

• 🟢 Could break out hard

💡 Trading Plan:
I’ll likely stay on the sidelines Wednesday and look for trades on Thursday.

📢 "You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money." — Mark Douglas

📌 Final Thoughts & Next Steps

📌 What I Expect:
✅ Short-term resistance test at $6,150 (ATH + R3).
✅ Breakout or rejection depends on FOMC reaction.
✅ Higher probability of long setups at S3/S4.

📢 What I’ll Be Watching:
🔹 Market reaction to FOMC Minutes.
🔹 Volume behavior near $6,150 & $6,250.
🔹 Trade setups for Thursday & beyond.

📌 What You Can Expect From Me

📅 Weekly Review This Saturday

• Recap of this week's price action.

• Breakdown of my trades (wins/losses).

• Market outlook for next week.

Let’s stay disciplined, manage risk, and capitalize on the best setups. 🔥